Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
