Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
